RESEARCH WEEKLY: Extreme psychiatrist shortage expected for next 30 years
(Mar. 22, 2018) New research published in Psychiatric Services by Anand Satiani, MD, and authors from Ohio State University anticipates an extreme psychiatrist shortage for the next 30 years.
Although there has been much attention focused on physician workforce shortages in recent years, previous estimates of the shortage of psychiatrists have ranged considerably. The authors write that “to address the shortage in light of the growing US population and the fact that mental illness has become the costliest condition in the United States, at $201 billion annually, the estimated shortage must first be quantified.”
Dr. Satiani and his co-authors analyzed estimates of workforce numbers through the Association of American Medical Colleges data in combination with population numbers.
They found that by 2024, a little more than five years from now, the availability of psychiatrists per population is projected to reach an all-time low.
In 2024, there will be 11.3 psychiatrists per 100,000 population, according to the results. This translates to an estimated shortage of 14,000-31,000 psychiatrists based on established ratios determined by the Department of Health and Human Services. This is due to the expected retirement of more than 25,000 psychiatrists over the next five years who are currently over the age of 55.
Although a slow expansion of the psychiatric workforce is expected to begin in 2025, it remains unclear whether this will resolve the shortage in the next 30 years, according to the authors.
New research is needed in developing strategies to increase the workforce to address these shortages, especially to limit the worsening shortage by 2024. Without an adequate supply of psychiatrists, no law or policy change can ensure adequate care for individuals with the most serious mental illnesses.
References:
Satiani, A. et al. (March 2018). Projected workforce of psychiatrists in the United States: A population analysis. Psychiatric Services.
